Comprehensive Evaluation and Dynamic Evolution Analysis of Shanghai’s Urban Vulnerability

Urban vulnerability refers to the ability of a city to resist internal and external natural and human factors. With global environmental changes and urbanization continuing at pace, the urban planning and development strategies of cities, especially megacities, are facing comprehensive and unprecedented issues. This paper takes Shanghai, one of the largest megacities worldwide and the global cities in China, as an example, using the comprehensive evaluation index method which includes natural resource vulnerability, eco-environment vulnerability, economic vulnerability and social vulnerability, to build a comprehensive vulnerability index evaluation system of the city. Through the dynamic evolution analysis conductive to a deeper understanding of the changing laws of urban vulnerability, explore the persistence and transformation mechanism of urban functions after perturbations, and realize the sustainable development of cities, the paper found that: firstly, during 2002 -2017, the comprehensive urban vulnerability index of Shanghai has been declining, among which the decline rate was large during the years of 2004 -2006 and 2010-2012, which was the result of urban events promoting urban construction. Secondly, Shanghai has changed from an absolute dominant ecological vulnerability to a more balanced vulnerability, indicating that cities have greater resistance, adaptation and transformation capabilities to multiple perturbations including natural resource, ecological environment, economic and social development. Thirdly, Shanghai's eco-environment vulnerability has continued to decline in recent years, but it is still the dominant factor of the urban vulnerability. Fourthly, as Shanghai has been facing an increase in migrant population and huge arable land pressure, the contribution rate of natural resource vulnerability continues to be high and has increased in recent years. Facing the changing environment and risks, we must plan for resilience, and build, evolve and secure quality of life for dwellers.